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In 2011, the prospects for real estate stocks like?

Although the real estate market (real estate) in 2010 were difficult, but the results of the enterprise business remains positive.

Stocks >> Bank budge, the property stands still /
2010: The ground is advantageous for real estate revenue shares

Revenue team-leading 10 companies listed increased 47.5%, profit after tax increased by 62.3%, EPS up 8.9% compared with 2009.

2011 Prospect how the property market is more difficult to meet due to the tight monetary policy, especially the tight real estate loans, consumer loans and home purchase loan interest rates rose sharply to over 20% / year?

Năm 2011, triển vọng cổ phiếu ngành BĐS ra sao? | ảnh 1

Currently, the total real estate loans , securities , consumer loans was 431,000 billion, accounting for 18.7 % of total outstanding loans . In particular , private real estate loans is 228,000 billion, up 23.5 % . The continued restriction and reduced real estate lending business in recent years and increasingly fierce current economic situation has made for gloomy real estate , especially in the segment of luxury apartments across the country , especially in south as HCMC , Binh Duong , Dong Nai ...

The real estate businesses in southern deploying promotional package as lower prices , provide credit to spur home buying apartments for sale , investment recovery . Many ongoing projects like Happy Plaza promotional discount of 17% compared to the original price , Phat Dat Everich just pay 30 % and rest payment receipt apartments without interest ... The apartments are popular the main products consumed in HCMC , with rates ranging from 11-16 million m2 .
HCMC : supply rise
The apartment is priced from 1,500 m2 upwards hardly transaction . Meanwhile , the supply of luxury apartments continued to increase . According to CBRE , the supply of new apartments in the first quarter of 2011 was 40 621 units in Ho Chi Minh City , from 79 projects . In particular, the apartment is 13 847 units, intermediate units and 17 228 per 9546 population is based , increasing the supply of apartments in the area are currently trading up about 120,000 units . This creates great pressure on the supply of real estate markets , especially in the segment apartments and luxury .

The difficulty in the apartment market in HCMC is a strong impact on business operations of the company as area Phat Dat Real Estate Development Corporation ( DPR ) , Commercial Consulting Company Hoang Quan Real Estate Services ( HQC ) , JSC Saigon Thuong Tin real Estate ( SCR ) , General Investment and Development Company building ( DIG ) , Hoang Anh Gia Lai Joint Stock Co ( HAG ) , JSC Licogi 16 ( LCG ) . However, beyond PDR focuses on apartments , the company remains as DIG , HQC , LCG focused on business project land , should benefit from the projects previously compensated with lower compensation costs and continue to profit from the transfer of the project , the land transfer . HAG , the advantage of clean land of low cost units from the previous period , to help stabilize the company in business .
Hanoi : Condo differentiation
In Hanoi , the apartment market , ground floor there are 2 big names that Investment Corporation of urban development and industrial parks Song Da ( SJS ) and JSC Tu Liem Urban Development ( NTL ) . Results for 2010 NTL almost equivalent in 2009; SJS result of reduced business profits by 35.7 % in 2010 SJS no business of new products , which mainly collect money from the business products business in 2009 .

In 2010 , Hanoi real estate market have diverged markedly , particularly in the condominium segment . The apartments are priced under 30 million m2 was greeted positively in the area west of Hanoi ( Ha Dong , Hoai Duc , My Dinh Trung Hoa - Nhan Chinh , Trung Yen ... ) , while the base apartment is priced from 1,500 m2 upwards rather bleak and increasingly difficult to consume . During the month 4/2011 witnessed a decline from Rung Project - Ecopark , with a 12 % discount compared to the price announced Project Vincom City Times has a 5 % discount compared to the published prices . This is the signal that the apartment market in Hanoi are signs of deterioration .

First quarter of 2011 , new supply of apartments in Hanoi at around 23,000 units, bringing the total supply of apartments in Hanoi were offered to over 100,000 units . In addition , the supply of land has increased sharply since the real estate projects . Currently , Hanoi has more than 244 large and small real estate projects and will deploy on land than 9,500 hectares , creating a large supply in the future .
Commercial centers segment
Markets trade center (Retail ) in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is relatively the same in recent years , with the lack of space in the shopping center center city area and excess in outlying areas of the city. However, in HCMC , the supply in peri-urban areas do not increase too fast . Also in Hanoi , the western region has a series of major projects in operation , push supply shopping centers increased in 2010 - 2011 , as the project as Keangnam Landmark Tower , Grand Plaza , Savico Megamall shopping center Mo Market , Pico Mall , The Garden , Times City ( 230,000 m2 ) , Royal City ( 200,000 m2 ) , Ciputra Mall ( 200,000 m2 ) . Besides pressure from the projects planned Vincom up to 1 million m2 shopping center in Hanoi in the near future. Consequently tend to oversupply in the commercial center west of Hanoi , while shortages in inner-city center area .

The total area of shopping centers in Hanoi by the end of first quarter of 2011 was 104,481 m2 Trang Tien Plaza closed due to declining supply leads existence , the average vacancy rate increased to 12.5 % , a slight increase rents 3 , 9 % compared to 2009 . In HCM City , the supply increased by 15,000 m2 first quarter of 2011 , bringing the total supply to 352 790 m2 shopping center , the vacancy rate at 6.7 % . A number of shopping centers in operation as Parkson Paragon , Tian Shan Plaza , Crescent Mall ... shopping center rents in the center down slightly from the end of 2010 , is likely to start declining like the other segment of the real estate market in HCMC .
Segment office
The office market rentals are also similarities with the commercial center in Hanoi and HCMC . However, the level of discount and excess supply in HCMC substantially larger than Hanoi . Area in HCMC office space of up to 17.6 % in the first quarter of 2011 and no sign of decrease as supply continued to increase since a number of projects as Bitexco Financial Tower , Tower A & B , The Flemington ... with total supply of office grades A, B , C to more than 1.7 million m2 .

In Hanoi , the supply in the downtown area in 2010 did not increase significantly , while the western region increased significantly with new projects go into operation as Geleximco Hoang Cau , Crow Plaza , contribute 47,000 m2 office space , bringing the total supply of office space in the 3 grade A , B , C in Hanoi is 763 348 m2 . It is expected that in 2011 there will be 383,000 m2 of office space was put into operation , in which two thirds are from Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower ( 159,000 m2 ) , the rest coming from other projects . Sources with offices in the west to larger excess , the rate of Grade A office space currently at 9.6 % , B 18.7 % , and at this rate may continue to increase in 2011 as supply increased sharply , while demand did not increase significantly due to economic difficulties .
Forecast listed real estate enterprises
The difficulties in the real estate market in HCMC in all market segments has created pressure on the business of real estate businesses south , especially the business based on the company selling apartments residents . This will impact on the business , the profitability of the unit in 2011 . In the Top 10 listed real estate companies , in our view , PDR and SCR will encounter the most difficulties . The remaining business as DIG , LCG , HAG , HQC will not encounter too many difficulties in business this year and could reach the business plan set out .

At the Hanoi area , real estate situation remains satisfactory with leading firms by revenue , profits of these enterprises from the transfer of land from the project as SJS Nam An Khanh project , La Van - Van Khe NTL from the Translation Project Hope , North Highway 32 and Tay project . In addition, a number of businesses in 2011 also will have revenue , greater profit from the property as VCG , PVX . VCG revenue primarily from real estate Splendora Project - Phase 1 North An Khanh has started open sales in the first quarter of 2011 with prices quite high compared to surrounding projects . PVX real estate revenue primarily from Project Dolphin Plaza , CT10 - 11 Van Khe , two resort pools and streams .

Năm 2011, triển vọng cổ phiếu ngành BĐS ra sao? | ảnh 2

On average, in the top 10 real estate companies on the stock market, the head of the debt ratio / average equity was 76.8%, of which the largest proportion of debt VIC (167.8%), followed to the SCR (166%), PDR (112%). Some businesses do not need to use very little and loans such as NTL (0%), DIG (23%), Italy (39%), LCG (48%). Businesses often use large potential loan risks. However, there VIC loans mainly long-term bonds and convertible bonds to the level of risk is relatively low.

(Theo ĐTCK

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